Out of Stocks, Gold

I liquidated my gold position on Friday.  A large down day after strong upside momentum like the sell-off Friday is usually met with either consolidation or selling.  I will be watching gold closely and hope to re-establish my position in the not-too-distant future.

This bull leg in the gold market is acting remarkably similar to the upswing in 2007 and 2008.  We had a similar sharp pull-back in November 2007, followed by a consolidating bullish wedge formation, which broke out a few months later and moved to $1032 in March 2008.  I will watching closely to see if a similar pattern develops over the next few weeks.

I have been selling down positions in the stock market this month and hedged out my remaining positions on Friday.  I am now actually slightly net short, primarily because I apparently can no longer do math.  Having said that, I am happy to be net short, and will be looking to get even more short in the near-term.

As long-time readers of this blog know, I could change my mind tomorrow and completely reverse my positions once again.  Thus, it is best not to trade and invest solely on what I write.  (Oh, they know that. - ed.)

Comments

[writejesse]

large down day? GLD finished down only 1.34 percent.

[Toro]

Gold was down hard intra-day.

[RunningAmokInFantasyland]

The latest from SquidWorld: from screwing up Harvard to taking the same job with the U.S. government.

http://www.boston.com/news/local/massachusetts/articles/2009/11/29/harvard_ignored_warnings_about_investments/

The Dumbest Guys in the Room.

The Best And Dumbest.

Too Dumb Too Fail.

Always A Fed Job.

[Mark G.]

Toro's Running of the Bears Market Blog? Maybe Ursa, Smokey, Winnie the Pooh, Yogi or Gummi's Running of the Bears Market Blog?

[RunningAmokInFantasyland]

@Mark G.

You're bullish, we get it. So are many of us.

Beyond being oh-so clever, anything to add in the way of substance? Or are you just blindly, stupidly, prayerfully bullish like the herd that went over the cliff in '08?
You were too smart for that.

[CanadianLoonie]

You forgot Liverpool is out of the Champions League too!

[Mark G.]

Posted by: RunningAmokInFantasyland
[[[[[[[[[[

No, I'm as bullish as they come. You are correct. I was too smart for that and made a small fortune in '08.

With P/E's much higher than at the onset of previous bull markets, entering a period of higher interest rates and across the board tax hikes, institutions like the Fed and Timmy at Treasury being questioned like never before, a weak US president, structural unemployment/over capacity issues, the pathetic state of US state's, counties,cities balance sheets, withdrawls of Fed liqidity, China's imitation of Dubai, (minus the leverage), more sovereign debt issuance as a percent of global GDP than post WW II, a rise in protectionism, a race to the bottom in global currency arbitrage, I think those who claim this is the onset of a new bull market are delusional.

But,seeing that the Fed/Treasury/US govt.are the buyers of first and last resort and their influence on the equities market are greater than at anytime since the GD, delusion may be an investors best friend.

[Mark G.]

Correction.I'm as bearish as they come.

[Mark G.]

And more why those that claim this is a new bull market are delusional...wealth destruction of US consumers, collapsing residential and commercial property prices, consumer/small business credit collapse as never seen before other than the GD, mark to fantasy accounting changes for the US banking sector, and the many unknown's that exist make the US financial more unstable today than the pre-Lehman days.

[RunningAmokInFantasyland]

"Our outlook is positive going into the New Year," Birinyi says. During soft economic landings, the S&P 500 usually does well, he notes.

He forecasts 1600 for S&P 500, 3450 for Nasdaq Composite by the end of 2001.

--Interview with Lazlo Birinyi, SmartMoney, December 2000.