Recent Returns

Returns for a variety of indices.

BXX (bank index) +32% since July 22
KRX (regional bank index) +23% since July 22
DJUSRE (REITs) +44% since July 10
S&P500 +12% in 2009
Nasdaq +27% in 2009
S&P/TSX Composite in US$ +36% in 2009
Brazil in US$ +91% in 2009
Shanghai Composite +79% in 2009

That is getting frothy.

But thus far, it shows no signs of slowing down.  Every time the shorts wade in on perceived weakness, they get burned.

Comments

[RunningAmokInFantasyland]

Really historic lows in buy power suggest it has yet to exert its true force...or what is left of it. The pensions, hedges, et al appear to be so traumatized and depleted they are acting like newbies.

But I think they threw some chips in on that bounce off SPX 875. And now they have to support...heh heh.

[alan smithee (nee kerry)]

Will the Fed induce another squeeze?

[dave]

Today reminds me of that Jane Fonda movie "They Shoot Horses Don't They"

This is like digging a trench with a spoon.

Decimalization of stk prices is evil.

[psychodave]

"And now they have to support...heh heh"
@R.amok | August 10, 2009 at 02:01 PM
Pensions & hedgies. They'll just sell off Treasuries to raise enough cash to run SPX up more ... like they did June 10th. Or maybe they'll get back to blowing a commodities bubble again. First they'll have to sell their U.S.T's

[Toro]

So when I write "it shows no signs of slowing down," it slows down.

Take that as a lesson, ROTBs readers!

However, this upward move has been powerful. I kept trying to short it, and I got burned, covering every time. Except, of course, when it actually does go down, and I'm not short!

I am the sacrifice to the angry Trading Goddess!

T.

[dave]

@T,

Trading Goddess probably liked you extra-crisp.

[RunningAmokInFantasyland]

@psychodave
"First they'll have to sell their U.S.T.'s"

What happens when you hitch your hopes (and fears) to a shooting star.

T's honesty is at times unbearable. But don't say anything--he might start holding his readers accountable.

[psychodave]

"Take that as a lesson, ROTBs readers!"
@Toro | August 11, 2009 at 07:51 PM
The lesson I took was the succinct & pithy observation/admonishment "Every time the shorts wade in on perceived weakness, they get burned."
As a result, I called you a Prophet.

"I am the sacrifice to the angry Trading Goddess!"
Well, you did remove her link from your "Money Stuff" link. Thought you knew about "woman scorned" stuff.

"But don't say anything--he might start holding his readers accountable. "
@R.amok | August 12, 2009 at 12:22 AM
Oh, ok. Mum's the word then.

But occasionally he's displayed genuine prescience. Worse yet, his posts have been comprehensible.

Only reason I wasn't short was that the move up was so irrational and senseless. Sicker than the movie Un chien andalou

[dave]

Before you get too excited about today look at a hourly chart of SPX & consider how lean the # of NH's today.

Too many mornings like this have been like the "proverbial carrot on a stick". Would love to be wrong & see an Act II this afternoon & Act II tomorrow. I'm from Missouri til then.

Regards,
dave

[dave]

@psychodave

"...the move up was so irrational and senseless..."

When the law is against us, argue the facts. When the facts are against us, argue the law. When both are against us, pound the table # ! # ! # ! # ! #

:)

[dave]

Check this out @5:51 Aug 7

Apparently Lee Brodie, a CNBC producer, doesn't know the difference between
BlackRock & Blackstone Group since they use the two names interchangeably several times.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17388932/pgn/3

http://www.cnbc.com/id/32335691

[alan smithee (nee kerry)]

I'm short, likely not a good sign.

the question is whether we are somewhere here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart2:symbol=^dji;range=19281001,19380401;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

or here:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart5:symbol=^dji;range=19710701,19840103;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

Odds are it will be a mix. Debt situation is similar to the first, governments are trying to foment the second situation, and given the balance sheet of the fed they will eventually cause hyperinflation... but it will be a few years, I'd think. somewhere in here?

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=%5EDJI#chart3:symbol=^dji;range=19281001,19410401;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on

[psychodave]

@a.smithee| August 13, 2009 at 10:29 PM
Excellent visual aids.

@dave
lol Re: "extra crisp"
ouch! Re: b.Rock versus b.Stone, I do it all the time.

Was this you?
"I'm not sure that's a given. Most people believe this; therefore, I wonder if we're in for a positive surprise.
Posted by: David | August 07, 2009 at 03:00 AM in
running_of_the_bull/2009/08/sp-500-earnings-per-share-1.html

[dave]

@psychodave
Re: b.Rock versus b.Stone

I think it was in Andy Griffith's "No Time for Sergeants" that he had a diffcult time remembering his right foot from his left foot for marching drills. I wish that i could remember the remedy to help you.

The earnings per share quote wasn't me, but i basically concur since earnings can be manipulated so much both in terms of accounting & even more so in terms of expectations.

FWIW, women call me David & men call me Dave. At least that's how it's been ever since my ex-gf, when i was a broker, had a father named David & a brother named David & i wanted to appear to be sensitive & compassionate. Didn't work that well.

OTOH, everytime i think of your handle i think of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_Lyons_(baseball). When you're referred to as p.dave, i think that we should call you p.diddy.dave.

Think i better quit. I'm channeling Hunter Thompson. A rolling stone messes up a lot of worms (after a rainstorm). But, so do i when i hit a 3-iron.

Regards,
dave

[dave]

The trading after the bell today betw 4 & 4:15 was kinda mind-boggling. IWM & QQQQ went nutZ .25-.30. There was a 2,018,040 block of Q's done in that timeframe. I can't imagine that was to cover shorts so i have to assume that it was opening to buy. Sept Q's puts were near their low for the day.

[alan smithee (nee kerry)]

dave, when things go crazy it is easy to see anomalies and big trades as indicative of the longer term trend. a lot of people are working to trade an illogical market. do we have another blow off coming?

[dave]

@alan,

A "blow off coming" (on the upside, of course) is exactly what i "was" thinking coming into this morning. However, now since we're so far below the 20Ema, i'd use that as a stop to STAY short.

If we stabilize, i still think we have a chance for an upside blowoff. I'm still a Sept/Oct bear.

Before this morning, i thought there were just too many bears to go straight down into Sept/Oct & the mkt needed to squeeze some of them out before the intermediate decline could set in.

It's interesting that this China scare has any effect today when it had no effect days ago. Therefore, i think it's really internal weakness not China.

Regardless, today makes the Fri 4:00-4:15 Q's/IWM trading more incomprehensible. There's no way that could have been short covering (so close to the recent daily highs). It had to be a bad opening buy since it was .20 to .30 above the 4:00 price. If someone wanted to sell 2mln shares it wouldn't have been .20 to .30 higher.

I tell you it scared the crap out of me since i added on some IWM puts in the last 30 minutes.

Regards,
dave

[dave]

@alan smithee,

Find it interesting that after QQQQ spending most of the afternoon > 20E that it closed .01 under the 20E which btw has rolled over & is now curving downward.

Regards,
dave

[dave]

@psychodave
Re: b.Rock versus b.Stone

In the early days of FNN, CNBC's predecessor, they had a Ted Knight-type anchor who was reading some news off of the teleprompter one day, "And the giant computer company 'One B M' ..."