What Worries Me

I would very much like to extend my appreciation to all the kind words yesterday.  One of the reasons why I started this blog was to provide unbiased (though, in retrospect, not always correct) observations about what is happening in the market.  If I have helped you understand things a little clearer, then I have accomplished one of the missions of this blog.

I have not gone away, at least not yet.  However, circumstances are changing such that it may no longer make sense for me to actively blog as I have done so in the past.  That decision remains to be taken, and I will continue to post, but only occasionally until decisions have been made.  Then, we will see.

I do owe at least one post as Isam reminded me in the comments yesterday. And that is what really worries me.

The economy and the markets have gone through a traumatic shock unlike anything we have seen in seven decades.  You know the story by now - housing bubble collapse, Lehman bankruptcy, subprime mess, credit market implosion, deleveraging, etc. 

I believe the market had priced all of this in, and more, given the record spreads in credit and dirt cheap valuations in equity.  If we are to break to new lows, then another convulsive shock must occur to the economy.  There must be something as big or bigger than what has already been experienced to send the market into a free-fall once again.

Bears argue that the shock is going to be commercial real estate and/or credit cards.  I disagree.  I believe the market has already priced in the decline for both.  The REIT ETF, ticker IYR, fell 77% from the highs, while credit card giant American Express fell over 80%.  Those are depression-like returns.  These are well known and have already occurred.  I also believe that both are no where near as threatening as what has already happened in the housing and mortgage markets.

But there is one thing that I believe is not well known, and it does worry me. 

And that is the potential collapse of Eastern Europe.

The collapse of the economies of Eastern Europe is an event that could rival or even surpass the collapse of the housing market, and I do not think American investors fully realize the ramifications of such a collapse. 

The region is not particularly important in terms of global output.  However, it is the exposure of European banks to the former eastern-bloc countries that could cause a chain reaction which could bring down the European banking system, causing the economy to plunge further and markets to collapse once again.  Given the hodge-podge of European financial regulation and a patchwork political system, the European authorities are less able to respond to such a crisis than the United States.

By some accounts, the eastern European countries are in worse shape than the Asian countries were at the start of the Asian Contagion in 1997, with sky-high indebtedness and large current account deficits.  Western European banks financed the borrowing in eastern Europe, and large defaults could bankrupt the European financial industry.

I do not know if the ultimate denouement is the implosion of the European banking system triggered by a collapse of the highly-indebted countries in Eastern Europe, but it worries me.

Comments

[psychodave]

Yay Issam!
the link:
http://runningofthebulls.typepad.com/toros_running_of_the_bull/2009/05/dialing-down.html?cid=6a00d83451986b69e20115706cc051970b#comment-6a00d83451986b69e20115706cc051970b

[Fred]

Thank you for such a thoughtful analysis on the current and possible future economic situation.

Do you have any recommendations for websites to keep current on the East European situation?

[karra]

el-Toro, don't you dare depart without expressing some serious sage comments re the state, both current and future, of PMs - thank you and merci bookoo as well - leave a pm at ck svp. . . .

[shaun]

have enjoyed your comments for years not Toro. hope you keep it up and i hope all is well in your personal life.

cheers buddy,

[Running Amok In Fantasyland]

T's analysis of E. Europe problems and W. Europe exposure: perhaps why the dollar is hanging tough...and why gold and commodities dee-nominated in official U.S. pieces of paper may be in a headwind?

Not much competition around for the buck...perhaps the Upnorth or Downunder dollar...unless you want to buy the reminibinbim...yuan.

And that is the sort of thing that made me no favorite of compensated instructors.

[Isam Laroui]

Thanks a lot Toro.
Your body of work speaks for itself.
By the way, even a weekly post would make a difference.

[Cherry Emery]

Thanks a lot blogger for such a nice and informative blog . I appreciate it .

http://theproperty.blogstream.com/v1/pid/413764.html