Worst Credit Crisis Since Depression, Stocks Down Less Than Average

What's wrong with this picture? 

I keep hearing the powers that be say that this is the worse credit crisis since The Depression.  When I look at the credit markets, it is easy to see the tremendous stress.  For example the TED spread - the difference between Eurodollar LIBOR rates and 3 months T-bills and a proxy for risk in the inter-bank market - was as high as 3.09% today, up from the close of 2.50% yesterday, and at levels we saw last Wednesday and Thursday when the end of the world was supposedly upon us.  Also, corporate spreads are as wide as they have been in at least decades.

Yet, from the peak in October, stocks are down less than 25%.  According to a piece I read from Ned Davis Research today, the average return in bear market since World War II has been a decline of 27%.  Also, the duration of this bear market has lasted a little less than the average bear market.

We are in recession, the broad market is not cheap and de-leveraging is ahead of us.

So, why do the bulls tell us that the bottom is near?

Please enlighten me.  I'm confused.

Comments

[TheFinancialNinja]

Yes. Its true. (News from Bloomberg)

The real question is, who is copying who?

Kazakhstan Plans Paulson Style Bailout: Borat? (http://benbittrolff.blogspot.com/2008/09/kazakhstan-plans-paulson-style-bailout.html)

[Shankar Khadye]

No need to be confused. The equities will experience that correction in a dramatic fashion over the coming days and weeks.

The more they resist, the harder the fall (and pain).

[kerry]

We did not have a huge market bubble this time around! Buffett is putting a good bit of money into the market.

This is at least the time to start nibbling. Nobody can time the near term direction of the market in the medium term. Some people can short term, and everybody can long term.

If the average downturn in a bear is 27% and we are down 25%, why would anyone make bearish bets given the near impossibility to predict medium term movements to get that expected additional 2% downturn?