This is an excellent post from China Financial Markets. The abridged version is
- The euro will not survive in its current form.
- This crisis rivals the Great Depression but is more like The Long Depression of 1873.
- The European crisis will be accompanied by a trade shock which will bring about a significant contraction.
- The recovery in countries affected by the crisis will not begin until their debt is written off.
- This will go on for many years.