What the Future Holds

This is an excellent post from China Financial Markets.  The abridged version is

1. The euro will not survive in its current form.
2. This crisis rivals the Great Depression but is more like The Long Depression of 1873.
3. The European crisis will be accompanied by a trade shock which will bring about a significant contraction.
4. The recovery in countries affected by the crisis will not begin until their debt is written off.
5. This will go on for many years.

Comments

[psychodave]

Doh!

I thought your linked Pettis article was the "This is the big one" article (see #2), and that this link:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/06/28/opinion/28krugman.html

was the "Long Depression of 1873, not the Great Depression" article.

My compliments to you for citing the earlier post (Pettis 6/24, not Krugman 6/27).

Pettis was "first!" to post.

Best,
p.dave

[CanadianLoonie]

The link is dead...=(

[psychodave]

@C.Loonie
Mr. T's link to the Pettis post and mine to the Krugman post just worked for my Firefox browser ... (?) ... concur if you meant the "link" between "rational" and "capital allocation"
best,
p.dave

[CanadianLoonie]

Pettis link is restored!

[Nom de Plume]

In hindsight, would Japan have opted for the lost decades that was the consequence of QE, or would they have preferred a complete melt down and rebuilding of the financials and economy over three years?