First, right up front, full disclosure - I am long the US dollar, so I'm talking my book.
A deal has been struck between Greece and the EU. Greece may receive a loan of €30 billion, paying ~5% interest. Merkel must be pretty confident of upcoming regional elections.
Euro-zone finance ministers agreed Sunday that if heavily indebted Greece were to get a bailout, it could receive as much as €30 billion in loans this year at about 5% interest from fellow euro nations.
The move puts Greece closer to a bailout as it heads into a week headlined by an auction of Greek treasury bills Tuesday. That is seen as a crucial test of whether Greece can still borrow from capital markets. If it can't, it would likely have to turn to the European Union package.
The ministers didn't decide to give Greece the aid; that step would require the unanimous assent of euro-zone leaders. But they laid out terms—especially an interest rate—in an attempt to convince wary financial markets that the European Union does indeed have a plan in place.
I am not sure why this is bullish for the euro. The euro gets its strength from the fiscal strength of its core region - France, Germany and the Benelux countries - or at least its relative strength. Bailing out Greece transfers liabilities of the profligate countries in the south to the core.
This deal had to get done. Banks in Greece were getting their lines pulled and were on the verge of collapse. It does temper a run on Greece but it weakens the foundation of the euro in the same way that the US bailing out its financial system weakened the structural foundations of the dollar, especially if larger countries like Italy and Spain are next in line with cap in hand.
UPDATE - Bloomberg is saying it is €45 billion, including €15 billion from the IMF.
European governments offered debt- burdened Greece a rescue package worth as much as 45 billion euros ($61 billion) at below-market interest rates as they try to end its fiscal crisis and restore confidence in the euro.
Forced into action by a surge in Greek borrowing costs to an 11-year high, euro-region finance ministers said they would offer as much as 30 billion euros in three-year loans in 2010 at around 5 percent. That’s less than the current three-year Greek bond yield of 6.98 percent. Another 15 billion euros would come from the International Monetary Fund.