As stocks rise, volume has been trending lighter. You can see the trends in volume declining from the March lows.
In fact, according to Bloomberg, S&P 500 volume for July is turning out to be one of the lowest volume months this decade. This follows volume that was far below average in June.
Markets can, of course, rise on lighter volume. Markets can do anything they want. However, if volume is the oxygen of the bull, the market may soon be running short of breath.
Markets rising...comments falling...in quantity, that is...not in quality...excepting this one...now it's Tuesday, put out the garbage...say, sure wish I had some volume charts for 1933, the last time buy pressure was this low...76 years from now, they'll have those charts.
Posted by: RunningAmokInFantasyland | July 21, 2009 at 12:30 AM
As i wrote:
"While i am .382 bearish & positioned as such, i would prefer a false H&S breakout & bear trap because it's what the mkt is least prepared for. And like the speculator that i am, the ensuing volatile move would be preferable. So unlike Steve McNair, i'm sleeping with one eye open."
Regards,
dave
"Posted by: dave | July 09, 2009 at 01:41 PM"
The lack of volume kept many sitting on their hands & missing much of the March/June rally. but that didn't stop a tremendous spring rally. Volume should be less than pre-2008. Get used to it; it's going to drop even more over the next several yrs. Many hedge funds have closed down & many more will. The public has felt burned by two 50% bear mkts within 6 yrs.
To those who want to use lack of volume as a reason or "overbought" as a reason that's fine with me because i'll just sell to you at higher prices. Of course, we'll get a couple of days pullback this week, but i'm not letting lack of volume keep me from being an aggressive buyer as i was every day last week.
Regards,
dave
Posted by: dave | July 21, 2009 at 04:38 AM
Thanks, Toro! It is really nice to see you posting again. Your comments have always been very helpful to me.
Posted by: Anshin | July 21, 2009 at 10:29 AM
"76 years from now, they'll have those charts"
@R.Amok
I just downloaded Hoisington's 2Q Quarterly Review & Outlook. It reminded me to thank you again for introducing him to me here:
"Posted by: Running Amok In Fantasyland | May 01, 2009 at 11:26 AM"
Best,
p.dave
Posted by: psychodave | July 21, 2009 at 05:14 PM
@psychodave
Hoisington is getting into a lot of public arguments these days with high-profile inflationists. Should be good for business.
...and that year I cited should be 1942 not 1933. We still have a ways to go to reach '33 buy pressure lows.
Regards,
r. amok
Posted by: RunningAmokInFantasyland | July 22, 2009 at 11:14 PM