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September 19, 2006

Semiconductors - BOOOORRRRIIINNNGGG!

I miss the 1990s.  Not the Bubble years, but all the other years.  Heck, I miss 2-3 years ago.

Back when we had volatility. 

Remember volatility?

One of my favourite groups were the semis.  They used to go on these wild upswings of 100%, 200%, 300% over 6-8 quarters, then collapse 60%, 70%, 80% over the next 2 or 3. If you had a system trading off valuation or capacity utilization or whatever, you could make a lot of money in a short period of time on both the long and the short side.  Sure, the tremendous ups and downs in corporate earnings caused massive dislocation to workers and their families as companies were always hiring and firing, but hey, it was fun for me!

Now, what do we have?

Freescale getting taken out by private equity.

Applied Materials announcing a $5 billion buyback.

Analysts speculating which company might be the next to be taken private, like the excellent Glen Yeung at Citigroup did today.

I read an analyst piece a few weeks back calling for the semi capital equipment companies to take on debt to buy back shares.

What's going on?

Private equity?  Buybacks?  Leveraged balance sheets?  Efficient use of capital?

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

I hate this.

If I want to buy Proctor and Gamble, I'll go buy Proctor and Gamble.

I want my old chips back!

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